Predicting the Presidency with Dr. Allan Lichtman

Grace: 00:00:00

The South Carolina presidential primaries are upon us. And I think to many people the whole process is very confusing. The delegates, the states that go first. Some states have what's called an open primary. Some states don't. Who gets to be on the primary ballot, how you actually get on the primary ballot. It all makes your brain spin. And there are actually different primaries, the Democrats presidential primary, the Republican presidential primary, and then the state party primaries.

ty in Washington, D. C. since: 1973

Dr. Lichtman: 00:06:17

Thank you so much.

Grace: 00:06:18

This election is one that seems very different from almost all others. One of your predictions is incumbency. The sitting president is the party candidate. But when we Biden Trump rematch, they're both kind of incumbents, and Donald Trump seems to be running as if he were the incumbent. How does that affect your model?

Dr. Lichtman: 00:06:41

It doesn't at all. There's only one incumbent under my model, and that is the person holding the presidency. Even when you have an accidental president, like Gerald Ford after Richard Nixon's resignation, they still count as the incumbent. And this is very important. I think people have misinterpreted what I've been saying as saying that Biden is going to win.

I haven't made a prediction yet, and don't expect it until July or August. But What I have said was Biden running and take out all the other noise gives the democrats the best chance to win. Because as you mentioned, Biden secures the incumbency key and he also secures the party battle key. That's two of my 13 keys that they went off the top under my system.

They'd have to lose six more to be predicted. Losers, but Biden doesn't run. They lose the incumbency key and they lose the party battle key because there's no air apparent. That's two down. They don't only have to lose four more to be predicted losers.

Grace: 00:07:52

Right? And have you had any additional thoughts that you apply to any of the keys for the lawsuits, all of the other things that are going on in this very unusual election.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:08:06

If it turns a key, then it is certainly relevant. For example, the Republicans are trying to pin a scandal on Joe Biden.

I don't think they'll do it, but I do have a scandal key and that could possibly turn. We have wars in the Middle East and wars in Ukraine. That affects two of my keys. Foreign policy success and failure. However, I don't change keys on the fly. Every four years someone tells me, Oh, this year is different.

We have an African American running. We've never had that before. You gotta change your keys. And I say, No, I don't. And of course, I was right, both times, in predicting Obama's win. Now, there are factors outside. Look, I'm not psychic Gene Dixon. I don't have a crystal ball, right? My system is based on history.

vely, to Abe Lincoln's win in: 1860

But that's outside the scope of the keys.

Grace: 00:09:31

And another key is third parties. Yes. Third party candidate wins at least 5 percent of the popular vote. So RFK jr a potential no labels ticket. Many people who support Nikki Haley say they wouldn't vote for Donald Trump under any circumstances, but also wouldn't likely vote for Biden. it's five percentage points, in your model how do you see that?

Dr. Lichtman: 00:09:53

Yeah, the way it works. Obviously, I don't know in advance what candidates going to get. So I've got to rely on polling just for this one key and to turn the third party key, the candidate has got to poll consistently at least 10 percent because I have the rule of halves that third party candidates usually do about half as well as they poll because of the wasted vote syndrome, I love you Ross Perot, but you can't win, so I'm not going to vote for you.

Grace: 00:10:26

One thing that really stands out as I was reading through all of your key predictors they all are a map to how the GOP is running their messaging. For example, major policy change, they're really trying not to let Biden get this bipartisan deal through on the border. The economy. They continue to talk about high prices and inflation, even though all indicators are showing differently. Social unrest, the A. I. Disinformation scandal. They're trying to tie the president into the Scandal. do you feel like you were the impetus for how parties lay out their campaigns?

Dr. Lichtman: 00:11:02

Increasingly, the parties do seem to be very much influenced by the keys and by the basic theory, I think proven theory behind the keys, which is that American presidential elections are essentially votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House party. To the extent you could block major policy change or pin a scandal or social unrest on the incumbent party, that could matter, but it's got to be real.

It can't just be, made up like they seem to be doing with the scandal key. And Biden has already won the policy change key. He has, his policies are so fundamentally different. From those of Donald Trump, that he secured the policy change key with his executive orders and his stimulus bill, his climate tax bill, his infrastructure bill, that key is already secured and my, people always say to me what does Biden have to do to win?

What did he have to say? And my answer is always govern well, it's governing, not campaigning. That counts, but if you're going to campaign on the keys, Joe Biden campaign on your accomplishments, people really don't know what you've done and your messaging is terrible.

Grace: 00:12:27

That leads me to my next question. He hasn't really run on those and people have voters and particularly have short term memories. And so if this bill doesn't get through and the republicans are able to make him look like he's failed at passing really important border deals, which obviously is their number one issue right now, do those past bills outweigh this last constant barrage in the news.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:12:52

Let me again, stress the key central points of my system. Nothing matters unless it turns a key that is a central. Finding of my work and something I've been screaming about for decades. And the big shots, of course, never listen. And that is conventional campaigning.

d have won in a landslide. In: 2016

But there were shortcomings in the second Obama term that led me to predict her defeat against all odds. You can imagine. It did not make me very popular in 90 percent plus Democratic Washington, D. C., where I teach at American University, to call 2016 for Trump.

Grace: 00:14:04

I imagine you were not the favorite person at dinner parties.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:14:08

I was not the favorite person for some time, but I did get a note written on the Washington Post article where I made my call for Trump. And it said, congrats professor, good call, and a big sharpie letter signed Donald J. Trump.

Grace: 00:14:26

I hope you have that framed on your wall.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:14:28

I sure do. Let me say this. Trump appreciated my call, but he never understood the keys. That it's governing, not campaigning that counts. As of 2019, he was looking like a winner with only four keys down.

Then the pandemic hits and the lesson of the keys would have been forget the rhetoric. You need to substantively deal with the pandemic and instead Donald Trump ignored the lessons of the keys and tried to talk his way out of it. And the rest was disaster. It cost him two or three more keys and a predicted defeat.

Grace: 00:15:06

Part of. Our problem as a voting society is that our experiences really are what create how we think. they're anecdotal, right? They're not data driven. It's really our experiences. And I think the barrage of media and all of the things, really based on fear and anxiety really gets us amped up. But your model really just takes all of that feeling and makes it scientific .

Dr. Lichtman: 00:15:30

And you know the pundits and the pulse of their buddies of mine, they're very smart But the problem is they got to write a story every day you know You don't even have to get out of bed in the morning to write a story about the polls.

And it's exciting, it makes it look like there's this horse race going on with candidates leaping ahead and falling behind. And it's sports talk radio, that's all it is. It's entertaining, but it has no scientific validity of any kind.

Grace: 00:16:02

It's salacious. It's why I read the New York Post every day.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:16:05

That's right, exactly.

Grace: 00:16:07

Okay, so we are in South Carolina, the home of Nikki Haley. if Donald Trump gets convicted and by some miracle drops out, and she's the nominee. She's still raising money. She's saying she is not going to drop out of the race. How do you feel about that?

Dr. Lichtman: 00:16:24

Donald Trump is not dropping out. No matter what happens, he's impervious, he has no shame. What could happen, and this is a far fetched scenario, is he's going to get the delegates, he's going to win all the primaries.

Nikki Haley is barely going to register. But let's say then after that, he's convicted in the January 6th case. Serious felonies. It is conceivable the convention could decide we cannot run with a convicted felony. The Republican National Committee could decide that. Now, I'm no expert on internal Republican politics, but it's conceivable they could then bounce Trump and pick someone else, and it need not necessarily be Nikki Haley.

Her standing in the Republican Party is very low. She's not very popular in the Republican Party. And they're under no obligation to go to Nikki Haley. I also find it very hard to believe That the Republican Party, which is so heavily influenced by white nationalists, is ready to nominate a woman of color. If they bounce Trump, they can go to anyone.

Let's also recognize it's not impossible the Supreme Court could decide Trump is disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and then, all bets are off.

Grace: 00:17:45

There's so many crazy things around this election that could happen.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:17:50

this is very counterintuitive, and I have a lot of trouble getting people to understand it.

Nothing matters if it doesn't turn a key. All the rest of the stuff that, preoccupies the pundits and the pollsters is noise. It's irrelevant. It has no predictive value whatsoever.

Grace: 00:18:11

Tell us a little bit more about the contest key? The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two thirds of the delegate votes.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:18:19

One indicator the party in power holding the White House is in trouble is that they have a big battle for the nomination. And that's why that's one of my keys. In fact, it's the single best predictive key. The party in power just about never wins when they have an internal battle. Look at for example The Democrats in 2016, when you had the big battle between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, that turned one of my keys.

And let's step outside the keys for a minute and just look at history. When was the last time the party holding the White House has won an election where the incumbent isn't running, there's an open seat, and there's an internal party battle?

Can you name one election where the incumbent has won under those circumstances? Trick question, 'cause there aren't, it's not in the modern hundred, hundred and 20 years of history,

Grace: 00:19:20

right? What I think you are making me realize and hopefully our listeners is that I'm stuck in the feeling of the election. Applying the data model, applying the scientific model is very hard to do.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:19:34

It's very counterintuitive. Because it says, basically, you've got to ignore everything you read and hear about the election.

Grace: 00:19:41

You have a book called 13 cracks repairing american democracy after trump, where you point out all the loopholes in our american political system. Do you feel Like we are on a path to destruction is what -

Dr. Lichtman: 00:19:58

You want me to be the Cassandra of the 21st century. Huh?

Grace: 00:20:03

Yes, I do. Because you hear people from both parties say, this is it. This is the end of democracy. If we don't put whoever in the white house. Yeah.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:20:13

Joe Biden is not a threat to democracy. Come on. That is. Fabrication, sheerest nonsense. The same fabrication that the Republicans have made up in trying to pin a scandal on Joe Biden. They've been trying to do that. For years and have found nothing. And the notion that Joe Biden is a threat to democracy is ludicrous. He is a mainstream middle of the road, moderate Democrat. You could print that kind of politician, for decades. Donald Trump is a different story. He is unique and he is a threat to democracy.

He is the First sitting president in over 200 years in all of American history not to participate in the peaceful transfer of power and in fact to try to destroy the peaceful transfer of power and steal an election that he lost. He has even since said he's willing to suspend the Constitution in order to retain power.

Once again, and conservatives have always posed themselves as the champions of the strict construction of the Constitution. Now you have a candidate in Donald Trump who cares nothing about the Constitution and cares only about his own personal power. That's what his attempt to steal the election was all about.

It wasn't about some principle. It wasn't about some policy. It was about Donald Trump and only about Donald Trump and nothing more. That doesn't mean if Donald Trump wins, our democracy is over. It just means it's in jeopardy,

Grace: 00:21:56

Because he takes advantage of the vulnerabilities in our systems, right?

he pushes them to the brink.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:22:02

Exactly. That's my book is all about the 13 cracks. What the vulnerabilities are. And the argument is, yes, Trump poses a special threat to that. But as long as these loopholes exist there is potential for future mischief by other leaders.

Grace: 00:22:19

One last question, Dr Lichtman. Have you tasted frog more stew?

Dr. Lichtman: 00:22:23

No.

Grace: 00:22:24

Well, can I invite you to South Carolina to come have some Frogmore Stew with us some day and talk more about it?

Dr. Lichtman: 00:22:30

I would love it. You know, I'm Jewish and I'll eat anything. Ha ha ha ha-

Grace: 00:22:36

We have one of the oldest synagogues here in Charleston.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:22:40

I know that. I've been to Charleston. Absolutely. I love charleston.

Grace: 00:22:43

Really appreciate you Dr. Lickman for being on Frogmore stew. You're a wealth of knowledge and our country is all the better for having you in it.

Dr. Lichtman: 00:22:52

Thank you so much. Take care.