Second Helping with Grace & Katelyn - Focus on the Process

Grace: 00:00:00

Hi, it's Grace Cowan with a special Friday second helping of Frogmore Stew with Katelyn Brewer. Hi, Katelyn. Hey, Grace. So, Katelyn, I don't know if you've listened to Wednesday's podcast. I interviewed an incredibly intelligent man, Dr. Allan Lichtman. And actually, he's so smart that while I was interviewing him, I felt like that video of Chris Farley on Saturday Night Live interviewing Paul McCartney. You remember when you were with the Beatles? That's how I felt. It was so embarrassing. Oh, his brain functions on another level than mine. It was really intimidating.

Katelyn: 00:00:46

I think I live by the rule that if you are the smartest person in the room, then you're not in the right room. And maybe that's just what Wednesday's podcast was you were learning.

Grace: 00:00:56

I could not agree with you more. And what tripped me up in this interview for those who haven't listened to Wednesday, he is a very famous world renowned professor, historian. He's the author of several books, but he has this theory that he has written a book on The 13 key indicators of how to predict the presidential election.

And since: 1984

But one of the things that really came up in this interview and really tripped me up was that even after reading his books and understanding the 13 key points, they're very mathematical. It takes out. Party, it takes out partisanship so much of politics is how all of us, everybody in the orbit of the country, how we perceive elections.

We base what we think the outcomes will be on emotion, on how we feel at the moment, not really on scientific data. And Dr. Lichtman's keys prove none of our feelings are typically accurate.

Katelyn: 00:02:19

Which is deeply disappointing because I feel like all of my emotions are a hundred percent accurate.

Grace: 00:02:25

I live by emotions.

Katelyn: 00:02:26

Exactly.

Grace: 00:02:27

Heart over brain every time.

Katelyn: 00:02:31

Yeah. Just ask my wife.

Grace: 00:02:35

We might have to have her on some time to get into the head of Caitlyn Brewer.

Katelyn: 00:02:39

I think that'd be phenomenal. She'd be happy to tell you everything.

Grace: 00:02:42

Okay. let's start by talking about our current situation through an emotional as well as a data lens.

We are right now in the throes of the primaries. We have two basically old white men that seemingly no one wants as president that are winning in the primaries. Let's talk about the South Carolina presidential primaries, like what they are, who's in them, how they tally votes, what the delegates are.

There's so many confusing pieces to how this whole process works. And also I feel like right now it doesn't even really feel like the process works.

Katelyn: 00:03:19

I would agree with you there. When I was prepping for today, I actually was astonished that we didn't even have primaries in most states until about 50 years ago.

In I think: 1968

Grace: 00:03:41

Totally. And actually, we have a really awesome clip from that year. To give a little bit of background, in 1968, a candidate was picked that really pissed off a lot of people in the Democratic Party.

And the convention had violence over Vietnam War. There was lots of racial tension. the convention went a little bit haywires.

Reporter: 00:04:02

There's a lot of pushing. The man being pushed, watch it. They're going to knock that over. The man is a delegate. They're asking for silence. There's a priest in here, dozens of reporters, and the man who got involved in it all is very calmly smoking a cigarette.

Grace: 00:04:19

I love. He was very calmly smoking a cigarette.

Katelyn: 00:04:23

It's a very on brand for 1960.

Grace: 00:04:26

I love it. I love it. I love it. Let's just for our listeners, I feel like a lot of times on political podcasts, they talk about things and people are like, what does that mean? The convention is the event that's held every four years that nominates candidates for the president and the vice president.

fter that crazy convention in: 1968

And then four years later, the Republicans reformed their process. But when they did that, they basically gave state party leaders a lot of leeway in how their caucus or primaries were set up. And so then that created a super confusing and complicated system that, by the way, is unique to each state.

Katelyn: 00:05:26

Gotta love a republic.

One of the things that fascinates me about this, which I would like to discuss today is we're not talking that long ago that voters were quite divorced from this process of picking the actual candidate. And so when you think about behavior change and instilling traditions in a system, it's no wonder that we're in this place where we have such low turnout during the primaries.

We don't think about the primaries with the same importance we think about general election. So the history of this all to me feels deeply important.

Grace: 00:06:06

For sure. And also the fact that they don't have to do any of the primaries. They really could just go to the convention and say, this is who our candidate is.

The parties are essentially private organizations. They don't have to do any of that. So I think one of the reasons that they did do that was to make sure that the people on the ground felt way more involved than just this top party leadership.

Currently most states hold either a caucus or a primary about six to nine months before a presidential election. So Katelyn, the difference between a primary and a caucus.

Katelyn: 00:06:45

Primaries are run by state and local governments and the voting happens through a secret ballot, very similar to how it happens in the general election.

Some states hold closed primaries. And that is when only declared members of the party can participate in that primary. So if you're a registered Democrat, you vote Democrat. If you register Republican, you vote in the Republican primary. South Carolina actually has an open primary, which means all voters can participate regardless of your affiliation or lack of affiliation.

Grace: 00:07:20

We are very democratic in that way.

Katelyn: 00:07:22

We are.

Grace: 00:07:23

That's, go South Carolina. New Hampshire has a primary, Iowa has a caucus.

Katelyn: 00:07:28

So caucuses are private meetings run by political parties, but they're public in so much as you group in the same room together and vote together and discuss together. And these are held at the county district and precinct level.

Basically, most participants divide themselves into groups according to the candidate that they support. And at the end, the number of votes in each group determines how many delegates each candidate has won.

Grace: 00:07:57

Okay, that's exactly why people don't like to listen to politics because what?

Katelyn: 00:08:03

Yes. You remember too, in 2020, the Iowa caucus was an absolute disaster.

Grace: 00:08:09

It was like 11 days before they had who the winner was, right?

Katelyn: 00:08:13

Yes. Yeah. Which doesn't really help confidence in the system.

Grace: 00:08:17

And one of the things about that open primary is that even though you don't have to be registered for a party to vote in the primary, you still have to be registered to vote. And so if you haven't registered at least one month before the primary, you are not eligible to participate.

So for Saturday, the 3rd of February, Democrat primary, if you haven't already registered to vote, you cannot vote in that primary .

Katelyn: 00:08:44

One thing I think people are confused about is if it's an open primary, does that mean you get to vote in both primaries and you cannot, you can only vote in one primary.

Grace: 00:08:53

That's a very good point. I have always wondered why Iowa was first because their process is really complex. And if they don't start first, they won't have time to do all of the things that they need to do in order to get it done, which I thought that was really funny.

And then I also wondered, why does it even matter who goes first? One of the reasons that New Hampshire and Iowa love being first publicity and the cash because the candidates spend tons and tons of money in these pretty small states and their campaigns are there for a long time. They're going out and talking to people.

So they're doing marketing and media and all of the press descends on them. So they get tons of publicity, but they also get lots and lots of money. I'm sure that's why New Hampshire was pissed at us about taking away their status. But. The funny thing is neither of those states really truly represents what the rest of the country looks like, right?

So it's great for them to get the money and all of those things, but they're not states that are representative of everyone in this country.

Katelyn: 00:10:07

Yeah, on the representation point, ninety percent of Iowans are white and in New Hampshire, it's ninety-three percent and even if you look at the Democratic Party, only sixty percent of the Democratic Party is white.

So there's been questions as to whether or not Iowa and New Hampshire represent the Democratic Party in particular for years. Mm-Hmm. . And I also think the other point is the group of individuals that those states are voting for is much larger, right? Mm-Hmm. They have all of the candidates. And so really it gives voters in early states, nearly five times the influence of other states picking the nominee.

Reporter: 00:10:48

In the sequential primary system Iowa has a crucial job, as do other small states that vote early in the process. Let's look at the 2016 Republican primary as an example. When the Iowa caucus kicked things off, there were 12 serious candidates on the ballot. After Iowa, three immediately dropped out. And after the New Hampshire primary a week later, three more dropped out. This is what those early states are there to do.

Katelyn: 00:11:14

Because of that influence you think about the Obama Hillary primary in Iowa, Obama was tracking almost 20 to 30 points lower than Hillary until Iowa. And then when Obama won Iowa, the whole course of the election and the race changed, and it became contentious, and it became intense.

And the Democratic Party actually had two legitimate candidates to choose from for the rest of the time. What we're seeing this time around is we have two candidates from two parties who have basically been chosen already. And that certainly doesn't inspire people to set aside time to go and vote in the primary.

Grace: 00:12:02

For sure. And also, if you don't win Iowa in New Hampshire as a Republican, like the Nikki Haley thing, everyone is saying she's done, which I give her credit for staying in the race. We can talk about this on another point, but I feel like she doesn't have a chance to win. I don't think in South Carolina, unless more people actually vote in the primary .

ho's second? They did that in: 2023

And New Hampshire was like, screw that. We're still going to go first and we are going to do our process anyway. And we just won't have Joe Biden on the. ballot, but instead he was written in. They like to do their own thing. Keep New Hampshire weird. Is that a thing in New Hampshire, Katelyn?

Katelyn: 00:13:15

I think their motto is live free or die, but keep New Hampshire weird sounds on brand for them. And I say that with a sister who lives in New Hampshire. I think what's incredible about it all is that New Hampshire as a state has an actual law that says they will go first in the primaries and which.

Does that matter? They're a state versus federal. This is a federal election. I don't know, but I'll leave that up to the listeners to decide. But they, by law, feel that they are supposed to go first. They did. As you said, Biden was not on the ballot, but he still won with 64 percent of the vote.

Grace: 00:13:56

What I'm curious about, and I don't know if we can find info on this, but did South Carolina announce their date of the primary and then New Hampshire was like, Oh, so they picked the third. We're going to go two weeks before that. Did they wait until we picked our date?

Katelyn: 00:14:14

And it does stipulate that it has to be at least seven days before any other state does their primary in the law, which is hysterical.

Grace: 00:14:22

Then we should make a law. That says we have to go before New Hampshire does, that our law supersedes New Hampshire's.

Katelyn: 00:14:30

Grace, I'm going to advocate that we don't give our legislature any other reason not to be productive.

Grace: 00:14:37

Good point. Agreed. Okay. So now if you're not confused already and you're not already irritated about how this entire process works, let me really put the cherry on the icing. Like this is really something the delegates, I'm going to say only in South Carolina because I feel like if we, if I tried to describe how other states do their delegates, it's a jigsaw puzzle.

So after the primary vote. The delegates are supposed to look at the majority of votes from that primary election and then represent those voters at the convention. So in South Carolina, county delegates elect state delegates. State delegates vote on who the national delegates are. And then at the state convention, the statewide delegates vote on who the delegates are based on a whole slew of criteria.

And that can vary from like age, congressional district, it's super confusing. And then there are these bonus slots for something called a PLEO, which is a party leader and or elected official. And then there's something called super delegates. My understanding of this, and this could be totally incorrect, but their job initially was to supersede the regular delegates just in case the national party preferred a different candidate nominee than the one that the state's delegate picked. Okay. Did that confuse you?

Katelyn: 00:16:09

Sounds a little bit. Yeah. I'm completely confused except for the fact that it sounds like they're the electoral college.

Grace: 00:16:17

We don't need, Oh my God, we're not even going down that rabbit hole today. We might need an entire day to record on that one.

Katelyn: 00:16:24

One hundred percent.

Grace: 00:16:25

So why do the parties not typically want someone to run against the incumbent? And if you listen to Wednesday's podcast, that is one of Dr. Lichtman's, I think it's his first of the 13 keys, because that is a really powerful position if the other keys match up. And so some of the other keys are things like policy, which Biden has had a lot of policy success. I know Republicans argue with that, but the fact of the matter is And so I feel like that is part of the reason why. And then I also feel like Trump is running as an incumbent too .

Katelyn: 00:17:04

That's a good point. I didn't think about it like that, but I agree. He is running as an incumbent.

Grace: 00:17:09

And then did you know, on the Republican ticket, there's Trump, Haley, and then there are two rando businessmen, Ryan Binkley and David Stuckenberg. Have you ever heard?

Katelyn: 00:17:20

Here in South Carolina?

Grace: 00:17:21

Yeah. They're not from South Carolina. I think it said one was from Texas and one's from Florida. Two businessmen. Totally fascinating.

Katelyn: 00:17:28

Never heard of them.

Grace: 00:17:29

No. Same. And then on the Democrat ticket for Saturday the 3rd, Joe Biden, Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson.

Katelyn: 00:17:40

Dean Phillips sounds like a name of a newscaster, doesn't it? Every time you say Dean Phillips, I think about the five o'clock evening news.

Grace: 00:17:49

So Dean Phillips, he's a moderate, he's a centrist. He is the U. S. House representative from Minnesota. He's one of them. And he announced his candidacy a couple of months ago.

He basically has all the things going for him that I feel like most center left and center right people say they want, and the Democratic Party does not want him anywhere near the primary ticket. They want none of him. And if you listen to the pundits, they are like, what in the hell are you doing, Dean Phillips?

Katelyn: 00:18:24

One hundred percent. The first in the nation campaign has actually been executed incredibly well here in South Carolina over the last month. And it is obviously for Biden. Dean Phillips is not at the events, nor does the party talk about Dean in any way, shape, or form.

voters will be anything like: 2022

And that's the sentence that I think is interesting. The circumstances do not call for that, which means they know, and are predicting regardless of the turnout of the primary, Biden is going to win.

Grace: 00:19:19

He's going to win in all of the other primaries. He will be the nominee, which is why I think it's super interesting. There is a really fascinating theory and push going around right now for Democrats to vote in the Republican primary for Nikki Haley.

And again, the theory is that Joe Biden has the Dem primary in the bag, so he's all but guaranteed to be on the ballot in November, but if the Democrats in open party states, or even in some other states you have to register, some people are registering in the Republican party so that they can vote for Nikki to try to keep Trump off the ballot.

Here's a clip from Jamie Dimon. It's a really interesting clip discussing why he really feels adamantly that Democrats should vote in the Republican primary.

Jamie Dimon: 00:20:11

What do you think of the two leading candidates right now? Oh God. I'm not, you know, I'm not going to tell you. You're not going to tell me. I did come out and make a nice statement about Nikki Haley.

You did. I mean, you've been talking to Nikki Haley. Even if you're a very liberal, as I have, even if you're a very liberal Democrat, I urge you, you know, help Nikki Haley too. You know, get a choice on a Republican side that might be better than Trump.

Katelyn: 00:20:32

What's interesting about this is I have heard, I've heard this theory that Democrats should vote in the Republican primary. And at first I was, that's interesting. I didn't really think about it like that. But then I've also heard Democrats say, if that happens, then unfortunately what that means is the DNC also invests money based on turnout of the primaries, which is another complicated thing. And so if it looks as if a lot of Democrats did not vote in the primary in South Carolina, then the allocation of cash to the democratic party changes as well.

And as we all know the Republican party has a considerable investment from the national group here in South Carolina, but the Democratic party does not because historically we've been a very red state and so it's complicated in so much as if we do that, yes, we might be helping democracy, but in the other aspect, we might be shooting ourselves in the foot if we are voting outside of our primary.

Grace: 00:21:41

And I asked Dr. Lichtman if he would just in advance, look at if it was a Haley Biden election, what would happen because I do feel like I have heard a lot of Democrats say that Biden is too old. This is, I'm not saying anything that's controversial, but this is the word on the ground. Biden is too old to be president by a lot of people who are moderates.

And I have two thoughts on that. One is that the power of the incumbency is stronger than the fear that the Dems think their voters have about his age and that a Trump Biden election would all but ensure a Biden win. But if it's Nikki Haley, that shakes it up a little bit.

Obviously in the primaries, she has to target the farthest right people, but if she moderates herself when she got to the general, does she pull in more of those sort of centrist people? I don't think anyone really truly knows that.

Katelyn: 00:22:43

Agreed. And having lived in South Carolina while Nikki Haley was governor, she was a good governor. I might not have agreed with her on certain political issues, but I think she did well for the state of South Carolina. And I think a lot of people think that either from South Carolina or outside of South Carolina.

Grace: 00:23:02

She has great composure. She's like the polar opposite of Trump. She has all the good words and she's not chaotic. However, where I think the piece comes into this, that really throws a wrench in it is something that I heard somebody say yesterday, which is. Trump is leading a movement, whereas Biden and Haley have supporters.

It's a much different feeling when you're voting for Trump or even Nikki Haley than it is for the people who really love Trump. And so then what I think this boils down to, if in fact it is Biden, Trump is. Do the people that don't love Trump, but also don't love Biden, which do they dislike more? And if they're typically Republican leaning, do they overlook all of the Trump crap because they dislike Biden more? Or do they vote Biden just because they can't take Trump?

Katelyn: 00:24:08

I think that's an interesting point. And I was reading a Boston Globe article. It basically said there are Republicans in South Carolina who backed Nikki Haley twice for governor, but have not soured on president Trump. And I think it goes back to what you're talking about in terms of Trumpism movement.

It is a, it is an emotional vote. For them, it's a moral vote. And. I think when you have supporters versus a movement, you could also say that about Obama. Obama was a movement. It wasn't just supporters. Right. Hope and change was real.

Grace: 00:24:44

Mm hmm. Yeah, I agree. as I was thinking, what should we call this last bit? There's this guy called Landon Talks on Instagram, Landon Talks. And he basically is a Southerner who brings up the language differences of the South and the North and hit one of his terms this week was whole nother thing.

It's really funny. So my whole nother thing this week was the lesson of learning. Somebody told me a long time ago when I was starting my first job and I was so intimidated and they were like, Hey, if you don't walk into work every day and feel like you are in far over your head, it means you aren't learning and That interview on Wednesday with Dr. Lichtman, I was rattled. I felt like such a ding dong and I feel like that is the kind of thing though, that it's a reminder of how much stuff you will never know. And why it's important to keep trying to swim in this ocean of knowledge, to keep learning as much as you possibly can, because your brain can hold everything, your brain can hold as much stuff as you are willing to put into it.

And so I feel like that was this. energy push for me to just keep striving to be better, to always spend every day learning as much as I can. And it was also a great reminder for me that if I were graduating from high school right now. There is no way I would get into college.

Katelyn: 00:26:21

Oh, stop that.

Grace: 00:26:23

I'm on the college circuit right now with my oldest daughter. Do you know what your SAT score has to be to get into college? It is crazy.

Katelyn: 00:26:32

I don't understand how we think we can continue to keep raising the bar in terms of education. It just seems astronomical, the pressure we put on kids these days, but my friend and a brilliant woman who definitely could get into any college and has as a Harvard and MIT graduate, she writes a monthly newsletter.

It is one of the only ones that I read consistently and this month's newsletter was about nuance. Her call to action for us was to sit in the nuance and not to pigeonhole yourself into one thought or another and to listen .

It was a truly meaningful newsletter for me this month, because I do think the crux of this year is going to be nuance and understanding where people are coming from, because if we don't, we're going to end up much worse in December than we started in January. And that is not the future I'm looking forward to.

Grace: 00:27:25

Katelyn. Speaking of nuance next week, my guest is will folks from Fitz news.

I am very much looking forward to finding the common ground and then also talking through some of our differences. Then you and I will do a follow up on Friday and get to talk about all the interesting things that he says.

Katelyn: 00:27:48

Yeah. And when we speak next Friday, the democratic primary will have happened. So we will be able to recap whether or not any of our assessments came to fruition.

Grace: 00:28:00

Love it. I can't wait. All right. That's all the stew for today. Talk to you next week.